Calculate whether a bet has positive expected value (+EV). The foundation of profitable sports betting.
Expected Value
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per bet
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EV Calculation Breakdown
EV = (Win Prob × Profit) - (Lose Prob × Stake)
EV = (0% × $0) - (0% × $0) = $0
Enter odds and probability to calculate EV
When your estimated probability of winning is higher than what the odds imply, you have a positive expected value. Over many bets, you'll profit.
Example: 55% chance at 2.00 odds
Implied prob: 50% → You have 5% edge
When the odds imply a higher probability than your estimate, you have negative expected value. Over many bets, you'll lose money.
Example: 50% chance at 1.91 odds
Implied prob: 52.4% → House has 2.4% edge
OddsElite compares odds across bookmakers to surface +EV opportunities in real-time. Stop calculating manually.
See live edgesExpected Value (EV) is the average amount you can expect to win or lose per bet if you placed the same bet many times. It's calculated by multiplying each possible outcome by its probability and summing the results. Positive EV (+EV) means the bet is profitable long-term; negative EV (-EV) means it's not.
EV = (Pwin × Profit) - (Plose × Stake)
Pwin = Your estimated probability of winning
Profit = Stake × (Decimal Odds - 1)
Plose = 1 - Pwin
Stake = Amount you're betting
Professional bettors focus exclusively on +EV bets because mathematics guarantees profit over time. A single bet can win or lose regardless of EV, but across hundreds of bets, positive expected value always wins. This is the same principle casinos use—except you're the house when you bet +EV.
The key challenge is accurately estimating the true probability. This is where skill, research, and tools come in. Comparing your probability estimate against the implied probability from odds reveals your edge. If your estimate is consistently more accurate than the market, you have a long-term winning strategy.
| Odds | Implied Prob | Break-even | +5% Edge EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50 (-200) | 66.67% | 66.67% | +$7.50 |
| 1.91 (-110) | 52.36% | 52.36% | +$9.55 |
| 2.00 (+100) | 50.00% | 50.00% | +$10.00 |
| 2.50 (+150) | 40.00% | 40.00% | +$12.50 |
| 3.00 (+200) | 33.33% | 33.33% | +$15.00 |
| 5.00 (+400) | 20.00% | 20.00% | +$25.00 |
Click any row to load into calculator. "+5% Edge EV" shows EV when your probability is 5 percentage points higher than implied.